An Unpopular Position: The End-State of Ukraine
A good compromise is when both parties are dissatisfied.
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “Victory Plan” to Parliament on October 16, 2024, focusing on five points to end the war. The plan might have a single point of failure: NATO membership. Although a contentious topic, President Zelenskyy must set aside the aspiration of joining NATO and conceding portions of Ukraine to end the conflict.
Conceding the Donbas region adds the buffer Russia seeks and relinquishes a pro-Russian region that could potentially end the war. The unfastened support from NATO in previous membership appeals and the history of the Kyivan Rus create complexities that will prolong the conflict. Vladimir Putin exploited these complexities; now it’s time for Zelenskyy to benefit.
The five-point plan includes an Invitation to NATO, Defense, Deterrence, Economy, and Post-war period. After delivering the plan to the European Council, Ukraine received support from the Biden Administration to strike deep into Russia with U.S. arms.
Immediately, he received criticism that his plan failed without NATO membership. “First of all, it’s not a plan. Plan means something with concrete steps. It’s kind of a wish list from Ukraine for our partners, how they can and should support us. And it doesn’t look realistic. We were waiting for some serious conversation about the situation and the strategy, and this is not that,” said Ukraine opposition lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko.
Ukraine’s Past Brushes with NATO
NATO has quaintly dealt with Ukraine’s membership aspirations in the past. In 2002, NATO downgraded the NATO-Ukraine summit to a foreign ministers meeting. Despite this, Ukraine deployed 1,800 troops in support of coalition forces in Iraq.
The 2004 Orange Revolution prevented Kremlin-backed Presidential candidate Victor Yanukovych from stealing the election. The newly elected President, Viktor Yushchenko, was considered a reformist and visited Washington, DC, in 2005. President George W. Bush visited Kyiv in 2008 and attempted to persuade NATO to grant Ukraine membership at the 2008 NATO summit. It failed to win the consensus, but the summit officially stated that Ukraine and Georgia would become members of NATO—something the alliance had never done before.
Then, Victor Yanukovych was elected President of Ukraine in 2010. The Obama Administration disapproved of his policies and declined to meet. The growing disapproval and corruption charges led to the 2013 Maydan Revolution, resulting in Yanukovych fleeing exile in Russia. Petro Poroshenko won the presidential election in 2014, then lost his second term in 2019 to his opponent, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
How was President Poroshenko’s tenure received? The record is still being complied. On one hand, the state investigation bureau suspected Poroshenko of “committing treason” by allegedly helping self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics to sell some 1.5 billion hryvnia ($54m) worth of coal to Kyiv. His weakness was not ending the corrupt elite, leading to then Vice President Joe Biden delivering a harsh anti-corruption speech in Kyiv.
Above all, he will be remembered for “graciously” conceding in 2019 demonstrating a newly founded democracy. Russian state media quickly celebrated Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s electoral defeat when freshly elected President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately said he would not make any concessions to Russia.
The Kyiv Rus is ancestrally Norse and Pagan and assimilated into Slavic culture through a shared language. Today, Russia and Ukraine share these cultural and language similarities. Russia was founded by the Kyiv Rus, and Kyiv became the first capital of both Ukraine and Russia. Following the abolition of Hetmante and Sloboda autonomy and Russia’s annexation of Volyhnia, Ukraine lost all traces of national distinction. Ukrainian culture is split between western, central, and eastern Ukraine.
What Is the Definition of a Ukrainian?
Galicia was a region in western Ukraine that Poland controlled before the Austro-Hungarian Empire annexed it in 1772. The remnants of the Austro-Hungarian Empire are found in the current capital of Ukraine, Lyviv, which was once an Austrian city. The now Oblast in Ukraine has historical western influence from Austria, Germany, Poland, and Hungary. A common misconception is that Ukrainians disliked the Third Reich. The Waffen-SS Fourteenth Division, AKA the Galicia Division, comprised Ukrainian soldiers from the Galicia region. The SS sought recruits from this region due to their loyalty to Ukraine and their fear of the Red Army.
Novorossiya has been a 150-year plan for a New Russia or Union of People’s Republic. It was a proposed confederation of the proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in Eastern Ukraine. The same idea as the current Donbas State (Luhansk and Donetsk regions), which was controlled by pro-Russian Separatists before the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
The nomadic and militarized Cossacks originated in central Ukraine and lived near the lower bends of the Dnieper River. They are Eastern Slavic Orthodox Christians with democratic traditions who settled across Ukraine and Russia. Despite this, the Cossacks were granted self-governance and autonomy in exchange for military service. The Cossacks were Russia’s irregular cavalry in the Napoleonic Wars.
In the first sixteen months of combat, 262,000 Cossacks died serving the Russian Empire in World War I. Their nomadic nature aligns them on the side that will grant land and self-governance. Stalin stopped persecuting the Cossacks and reinstated the Cossack Regiment, but some went to fight for the Germans and other allies in World War II.
Despite this, Ukrainians now identify as Cossacks.
The historical background and cultural identity of Ukraine is complex. Late last year, the National Interest published, Is the Russian Army Doomed? Russia wants to play the long game by drastically reducing the Ukrainian fighting-aged population and Western support through the economic depletion of resources. To avoid a total defeat and the loss of Ukraine to Russia, President Zelenskyy must give up the Donbas.
Ukrainian hydrology has historically impacted how people have moved throughout the region. The vast expanse of the Dneipers is a natural barrier, making it difficult to cross and hindering military operations. Control of the riverbanks is crucial for controlling territory and supply lines. The historical significance of the Dneiper River and other smaller rivers throughout Ukraine are perfectly exemplified in Sniper on the Eastern Front.
The memoirs of Sepp Allerberger, a nineteen-year-old sharpshooter, personally recount the brutality of the Eastern Front in World War II, specifically, the German retreat to the western banks of the Dnieper River.
The Dneiper is a natural boundary and strategic position. It was recently pivotal for Ukrainian forces during the Kherson counteroffensive, driving Russian forces to the eastern side of the Dnieper. Furthermore, Russian attempts to cross the Donets above Lysychansk were stopped in the Battle of Siverskyj in the Dneiper-Donets Basin.
This is an unpopular opinion, but relinquishing control of the Donbus region would be a compromise for both Ukraine and Russia. It creates an additional buffer while granting the pro-Russian population their Novorossiya. Using the Dneiper River as the natural border provides Ukraine additional security from future invasions. The comprise, though not ideal, allows Ukraine to recover from the invasion and focus on unifying Central and Western Ukraine.
The Invasion of Ukraine unified the Central and Western regions. It has created an identity of freedom and resistance. The infamous Cossack haircut, the osoledets, a single lock of hair surrounded by a smoothly shaven head, is infamously serving as this sign. Businessmen in Kyiv are seen walking to work sporting an osoledet haircut as a sign of civil disobedience. Edward Leonov, a Ukrainian politician, rocked it during parliament. 3rd Regiment Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Group, together at all echelons, standardized the osoledet.
Why is a haircut so important? “It embodies the anarchic spirit of Ukraine’s Cossacks- the rebel warriors who have come to symbolize the country’s resistance against Russia,” said Leonov. The simple act of defiance gained the attention of previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who personally visited Leonov and Cossack Regiments in Ukraine. The visit encouraged his support for Ukraine, and as a thank you, he was inducted into the Ukrainian Cossack community. Most Ukrainians are not Cossack but identify with its associated virtues of freedom, self-governance, and unity.
Back To The Modern Day
The calculus seems too simple. Russia has more resources and more bodies to throw at the conflict, and Ukraine does not. President Zelenskyy needs to take advantage of the unification the Ukrainians have exemplified. Relinquish control of the Donbas, creating an armistice. Once the fighting stops, Ukraine can begin to plan the evacuation of the pro-Ukrainian population. With the support of the NATO alliance, the plan for familial visitations in the region and security along the Dnieper River will be developed further.
Of course, the scenario works in a perfect world, but progress cannot begin until the fighting ends. Even if the conflict ends with the relinquishing of control of the Donbas region, the illegal seizure of Crimea would remain. How will this be resolved? Ukraine would have to work with the NATO alliance.
The war must end, and President Zelenskyy needs to be realistic. NATO is not ready for Ukraine to join, and Ukrainians need to accept membership as a long-term aspiration. Their reputation over the past Twenty years was foreshadowed by internal bad actors and solidified by undermining global leaders. NATO should be concerned with Ukraine’s unstable modern history and the possible commitment to Article 5.
There is nothing wrong with Ukraine’s NATO ambition. Once conflict ceases, Ukraine can focus on rebuilding its country and political system, creating a corridor for potential NATO membership. Both sides are taking heavy casualties for mere meters of ground waiting on the outcome of the new Trump Administration. The devastating losses on both sides for an unknown outcome is a tragedy in itself.
Alexander Hardy is the CEO of Valerio Solutions. He currently serves in the United States Army Reserve as a Non-Commissioned Officer in Charge (NCOIC). Alexander’s military education includes the United States Army Infantry School (now the Maneuver Center of Excellence) and the United States Army Intelligence Center of Excellence (USAICoE). He is also an Information Systems Adjunct Professor at the University of Dayton School of Business.
Benjamin Hazen currently serves as an Assistant Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management at the University of Dayton. He previously served 20 years in the U.S. Air Force in both enlisted (Satellite, Wideband, and Telemetry Systems) and commissioned officer (Aircraft Maintenance and Logistics) positions. Retiring in 2019, Ben last served as an Associate Professor of Logistics and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director of the Center for Operational Analysis at the Air Force Institute of Technology.
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