Hamas’ Delusions and Israeli Strategy
Recently published documents show that Hamas may stick to its eliminationist goals if it is allowed to survive.
In May of 2021, Israel launched Operation Guardian of the Walls, an eleven-day military campaign to weaken Hamas and its terrorist allies in Gaza after they had fired rockets that hit Israeli homes and a school.
It marked the fourth military clash between Israel and Hamas since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, but, as with the prior three, Hamas remained in place after it was over to continue ruling Gaza with an iron fist and plotting more terrorism against the Jewish state.
But it was after that clash of 2021 in particular, we now know from captured documents, that Hamas leaders became convinced that Israel could be destroyed. They then developed plans to pursue that goal with other terror members of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” and they discussed those plans with Iran and Hezbollah in the days leading up to Hamas’ slaughter on October 7, 2023.
Now, as Hamas retakes control of Gaza after a two-month ceasefire with Israel and reconstitutes its capacity to resume its terror, classified documents published in recent days by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center highlight Israel’s desperate need to restore a sense of deterrence in the minds of its bitterest enemies.
In fact, the publication of these documents comes amid reports that, while Israel has killed an estimated 20,000 Hamas terrorists since the October 7 massacre, the group recruited over 25,000 fighters over the past seventeen months. Its Gaza ally, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, now reportedly has over 5,000.
Hamas’ eliminationist ambitions, restored rule, rebuilt capacities, and renewed planning help explain why—even amid predictable and severe global criticism for breaking the ceasefire—Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he remains committed to “eliminating” the group.
Just after Operation Guardian of the Walls, Hamas’ military wing published a book in which it wrote, “Defeating the enemy has become within range, or even closer, by the will of Allah.” That refrain reflected the view of Hamas leaders that Israel’s destruction was now less a far-off goal than a near-term possibility.
Weeks later, in September 2021, Yahya Sinwar, then head of Hamas’ political bureau, sponsored a conference entitled “The Promise of the End of Days—Palestine After Liberation.” At it, he affirmed, “our assessment that victory is near.”
In a June 19, 2022, letter to Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of Hamas’ political bureau, Sinwar sought to turn the change in rhetorical tune into action by outlining three possible scenarios for a multi-front war against Israel.
The first called for “All elements of the ‘resistance axis,’ except Iran,” to attack. The second called for Hamas to attack, “while Hezbollah would participate partially, and forces from other fronts, the West Bank, and the interior would also join.” The third called for Hezbollah not to participate, “at least not initially,” and “the main burden” to “fall on Hamas, with additional forces from the ‘resistance axis’ and fedayeen from Jordan and Syria.” Within weeks, the leaders of Hezbollah had endorsed the first scenario.
To be sure, Israel’s assault on Hamas and decapitation of Hezbollah in recent months have put those eliminationist goals on the back burner, at least for now. Nevertheless, as the Meir Amit Center warns, “In the long run, if Hamas recovers, it is not improbable that the movement could once again regard destroying Israel as a practical plan.”
That assessment gives us a telling glimpse into the minds of the genocidal groups on Israel’s southern and northern borders. It also helps to explain why Israeli leaders, whatever their differences, are united in the belief that Hamas can’t be allowed to survive, let alone thrive.
Lawrence J. Haas is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and the author of, among other books, Harry and Arthur: Truman, Vandenberg, and the Partnership That Created the Free World.
Image: Anas-Mohammed / Shutterstock.com.