The Houthis Have Paused Attacks—For Now
While the Gaza ceasefire has temporarily halted the Yemeni rebel group’s attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea, they still pose a growing problem for regional security.
While the international community may be taking a collective sigh of relief that the Houthis have paused their thirteen-month campaign against maritime traffic in the Red Sea, the group’s domestic operations are heating up.
Shortly after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire, the Houthis signaled an end to their attacks on trading vessels—first in an email to international shipping companies and later in a public statement by the group’s leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi. The group did, however, clarify that they reserved the right to target Israel-affiliated ships and warned that they could resume their assaults if necessary. The announcement is significant as Houthi maritime operations in the region were a major blow to international shipping, forcing shipping companies to choose between three expensive options: travel around the Horn of Africa to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait altogether, pay tariffs to the Houthis, or transfer their goods onto smaller boats to mitigate attack risks.
Although it remains uncertain whether the Yemeni rebels will resume lobbing drones and missiles at ships, their focus has visibly shifted to domestic operations against the Yemeni government and its affiliates. In the days following their announced ceasefire—and with the new Donald Trump administration re-designating the group as a foreign terrorist organization—the Houthis have made several alarming steps to consolidate control over Yemeni territory.
Last May, the Houthis detained thirteen staff members from the UN as well as other local and international non-governmental organizations, forcing the UN to suspend movement in the Houthi-controlled territory and cutting off the organization from 70–80 percent of Yemenis living under Houthi rule. At the same time, reports indicate that the Houthis had moved thousands of fighters to the frontlines in the Marib province. This area was previously the main focus of the group’s operations. They have begun carrying out some strikes in preparation for a larger military offensive to take over the area.
Alongside these military advances, Houthi loyalists have launched a messaging campaign targeting local tribes in the province, pressuring them to concede control of strategic energy facilities, government buildings, and military bases in the area. Several Houthi leaders have reportedly been bragging on X about a coming final strike to seize all of Yemen. One official went as so far as to warn publicly that American assets in the Middle East are within reach of Houthi missiles if President Trump continues his “feud” with the Yemeni people.
Despite their destabilizing actions and rampant human rights abuses in Yemen, the Houthis rarely attract significant international attention except when their activities threaten the global economy. However, their latest moves against the internationally recognized government, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), should be seen as a strategic effort to gain leverage ahead of future peace negotiations.
The Houthis have consistently refused to engage in direct negotiations with the PLC. Moreover, they have made clear their intent to monopolize governing power. Their renewed push to capture Marib—one of the final Yemeni government strongholds—would expand their economic base and give them a new sense of legitimacy within the international community. At the same time, it would significantly diminish the Yemeni government’s control over domestic territory, eroding its credibility on both a local and an international level.
A Houthi-controlled Yemen would have far-reaching consequences for the United States and its allies in the region. Such an outcome would solidify Iran’s foothold in the country, granting Tehran unabated access to new strategic positions along the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the border with Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it would likely embolden the Houthis beyond Yemen’s borders and empower their efforts to cooperate with other U.S. adversaries, including Russia and China.
Reports already suggest that the Houthis are cooperating with Somalia’s Al Qaeda affiliate, al-Shabaab, and have deployed forces to Syria. At the same time, reports of Houthi mercenaries fighting in the Ukraine war and a potential deal that would see Moscow send the Houthis advanced anti-ship missiles, coupled with claims that China is helping the Houthis obtain weapons, demonstrates that the group is thinking well beyond working with other non-state actor groups. If things continue unchanged, what was once a localized insurgency will continue to grow as a geopolitical challenge for the United States.
Emily Milliken is the Associate Director for the Atlantic Council’s N7 Initiative.
Image: Mohammed Bash / Shutterstock.com.