Inflation
Why Donald Trump Might Reverse Course on Tariffs
With trillions of dollars vanishing from financial markets overnight, the president may have little choice but to make an uncharacteristic U-turn.
Why Interest Rates Matter
The Federal Reserve’s primary economic policy tool is also a macro-signal of the economy’s health. These days, the Federal Reserve faces a balancing act on how to use its interest...
Trump’s Tariffs Will Be A Disaster
Combined tax cuts and tariffs on imports will only increase the national debt and inflation. It was said of the Bourbons upon their restoration after the French Revolution and the...
Will Donald Trump Restart America’s Inflation Crisis?
There is good news and bad news on the inflation front. The good news is that inflation has come down from its May 2022 high of 9 percent to close...
Donald Trump: A Threat to the U.S. Economy?
H. L. Mencken, the late American journalist, famously wrote that “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”...
The Federal Reserve Kept Interest Rates Too High for Too Long: Now What?
At a time when the economy is showing clear signs of slowing and when the banking system is facing serious problems with its commercial real estate loan portfolio, the Powell...
The Federal Reserve Will Cut Interest Rates. But Can a Recession Be Avoided?
If there is one thing we know about monetary policy, it is that its effects are not often felt until after long and variable lags. In general, it takes between...
The Federal Reserve Could Accidentally Start a Recession
Today’s stronger-than-expected GDP numbers make it very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will start an interest rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting this week. This is a great pity, considering...
Why Won’t the Federal Reserve Start Cutting Interest Rates?
Milton Friedman famously taught that monetary policy operates with long and variable lags. By this, he meant that the effects of raising or lowering interest rates should not be expected...
America’s Greatest Enemy Isn’t China or Russia: Its $35 Trillion In Debt
With a With a $1.5 trillion deficit this year, $35 trillion in overall debt, and $1 trillion in interest payments this year, if the U.S. dollar is no longer the primary...
How Houthi Attacks Impact U.S. Consumers
The Iran-backed Houthis have been assaulting shipping in the Red Sea since October, driving up global shipping costs and creating ripple-down effects on U.S. markets and consumers. Yet, with the...
Lower Interest Rates Won’t Come to the Rescue for Joe Biden
In the run-up to this year’s presidential election, President Biden, like previous incumbents, would like the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. It would not only boost financial markets but...