Maybe the NGAD Program Isn’t Dead Yet
The fact that the DoD raised the ceiling costs for the engines would suggest that the program may not be as “paused” as previously reported.
Last year, the United States Air Force pressed “pause” on its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, citing costs and future capabilities of the sixth-generation manned aircraft that was among the “system of systems” that the service sought to employ. NGAD was meant to be the eventual replacement for the Air Force’s Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, but its future has been far from clear in recent months.
However, the NGAD program may not be dead just yet.
The United States Department of Defense (DoD) announced that it had awarded two contract modifications—each reported to be worth upwards of $3.5 billion—for sixth-generation aircraft engine prototypes. General Electric (GE) and RTX’s Pratt & Whitney (P&W) division were named by the Pentagon in a contract announcement on Monday. The Air Force Lifecycle Management Center, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, was named as the contracting activity and work was “expected to be completed by July 11, 2032” and “July 13, 2032” respectively.
Both efforts will be part of the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion program.
The Pentagon further stated the P&W was “focused on delivering a state-of-the-art propulsion system with a flexible architecture that can be tailored for future combat aircraft operating across various mission threads; and digitally transforming the propulsion industrial base.”
According to a report from Airforce-Technology.com, “GE is developing a variable-cycle XA102 engine prototype while P&W is designing an XA103 engine prototype.” P&W could have a slight edge as its P135 engine is employed in the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, and that engine is part of the Block 4 upgrades to the fifth-generation multirole fighter.
What This Means for the NGAD
The fact that the DoD raised the ceiling costs for the engines would suggest that the program may not be as “paused” as previously reported. Air Force officials have acknowledged the NGAD’s high cost was a significant concern and have sought to bring it under control.
As previously reported, the service had warned that each NGAD manned fighter could cost upwards of as much as three times that of the F-35 Lightning II, bringing the total price tag to around $300 million per aircraft. That in turn led to concerns that the air service would have to reduce the number of aircraft in its fleet, which also meant that losing any in accidents—as occurred on Tuesday with an F-35 in Alaska—would be devastating.
Critics have warned that combat losses would impact the U.S. Air Force’s ability to effectively fight future wars.
Another concern was that the aircraft developed today may not be the aircraft needed tomorrow. The F-22 Raptor was born out of the Air Force’s Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) program, which began in 1981. As a result, many of the pilots flying the Raptor today weren’t even born when fighters were being designed.
Reduced Order for the F-22—Portent for the NGAD?
The high costs of the F-22 and the changing geopolitical situation after the end of the Cold War reduced the number of aircraft the service received. That further drove up the per-plane cost. The Pentagon originally planned to buy 750 of the fifth-generation air superiority fighters for the Air Force, but that was scaled down to 381 and then further cut to just 195 aircraft—including eight test prototypes and 187 production fighters.
That could serve as a bad omen for the NGAD.
In fact, Air Force officials had suggested that we could see fewer manned fighters, which would be supported by unmanned aircraft—notably those developed as part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. CCA calls for the development of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) that would serve alongside manned or optionally manned aircraft. As advanced loyal wingmen these would be capable of supporting and protecting the human pilots, providing reconnaissance, acting as decoys, and notably sacrificing themselves to accomplish the mission.
Based on the continued support for the CCA, and this new contract announcement for sixth-generation engines, it does seem that the NGAD could result in far fewer manned fighters, supported by thousands of lower-cost drones.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
