MOAB Mania: Israel Could Strike Iran’s Nuclear Sites With America’s Biggest Bomb
The Netanyahu administration believes that now is the greatest window of opportunity for dealing a critical blow to Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Israel has drawn up plans to strike the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran. The airstrikes could come at any moment. We do not know exactly what structure the strike would take, but it is worth envisioning one likely scenario.
The Israeli mission targeting the sprawling underground Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant would probably take off from places like Nevatim Air Base, where Israel’s potent F-35I warplanes are located. The F-16I would likely be involved, too. These planes would fly out and suppress the expansive and comprehensive air defense networks that Iran has established around its country.
After Israeli warplanes have punctured a hole in the Iranian air defense network, an Israeli C-130 Hercules transport plane would deploy from Nevatim. In its hold would be an 11-ton “MOAB” bomb—recently granted to the Israeli Air Force by the Trump administration. This bomb would be dropped from the back of the C-130.
The MOAB
MOAB has a dual meaning. It is an acronym that stands for “Massive Ordnance Air Blast.” But the US military quickly gave it another, informal name that is far more descriptive. They dubbed it the “Mother of All Bombs”—so named because it is the world’s largest non-nuclear bomb.
And, for good measure, there is another, more ancient meaning behind the word “MOAB.” In the Bible, the Moabites were a tribe in constant conflict with their Israeli neighbors to the west. They hailed from the land of Moab, in modern-day Jordan.
Whatever the “MOAB” represents, it is specifically designed to destroy hardened underground facilities of the kind that comprise the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran. Recently, President Trump told the Iranians that the only red line he has with the Islamic Republic of Iran is that they do not acquire nuclear weapons.
To be clear, Iran may already have a rudimentary nuclear weapons capability. What they do not have, however, is a sophisticated warhead and a reliable delivery system that could be used to target Israel from a distance.
Still, Trump has made his red line clear. The Iranians, for their part, continue to provoke tensions: attempting to showcase their military prowess, threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, insinuating that they would annihilate Israel if the Israelis struck Iranian nuclear facilities, and behaving as a generally unstable actor in an already chaotic region. A strike against Fordow would be amply justified—and likely long overdue.
Destroying Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Capacity
Uranium is the lifeblood of any nuclear weapons program. However, it must be enriched from naturally-occurring U-238 into fissile U-235, which is the function of the Fordow plant.
By destroying Fordow, the Israelis can likely set the Iranian nuclear weapons program back significantly. Of course, this move is fraught with danger. Tehran has warned that any direct Israeli strike on their nuclear weapons facilities—a step that Israel has so far refrained from taking, though it has hampered them through computer viruses and targeted assassinations—will result in the total destruction of Israel in a massive counterattack by Iran. What Iran does not understand is that this rhetoric, at such tense times, is only encouraging the U.S. and Israelis to seek a lasting solution to their Iranian woes.
How Would Iran Respond?
Of course, Iran is not without its ability to respond. While the loss of Syria as an ally has greatly reduced Iran’s reach regionally, Iran still has Hezbollah in Lebanon. Unlike Hamas, which barely survived its war with Israel, Hezbollah has managed to preserve itself and a future capability against the Israelis—one reason why Israel entered a ceasefire with Hezbollah late last year. Hezbollah has at its disposal a massive number of long-range precision missiles that could level the key Israeli port of Haifa. Indeed, these could decimate Tel Aviv and other major infrastructure targets in neighboring Israel.
The Israeli government is committed to knocking Iran’s nuclear weapons offline. It is obvious that the Netanyahu administration believes that now is the greatest window of opportunity for dealing a critical blow to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, a program that poses immediate threats to the safety of Israel. Further, the Trump administration is far more compliant with Israeli requests than was the preceding Biden administration—as evidenced by Trump breaking with all of his recent predecessors in granting MOABs to Israel in the first place.
What remains to be seen, though, is whether Israel’s airstrikes on Iran will be limited in nature. One can imagine that if Israel is successful in destroying Fordow, if Tehran’s threats of massive retaliation are to be believed, then there’s a real possibility that Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities could trigger a much wider war. Given how unstable the situation in the region already is over the fate of the Gaza Strip, there is a real risk of a total breakdown of whatever is left of the Mideast regional order—and possibly the eruption of a third world war.
Iran’s True Threat & What is To Be Done
There’s little doubt that Iran’s nuclear weapons threat is real and that Tehran’s possession of nuclear weapons is utterly unacceptable. The question, though, is what to do about the threat. Israel is fixated on physically destroying these facilities. Another solution, however, is to follow the prescription of the first Trump term and follow through on the Abraham Accords. While this approach would take longer, and would certainly be far less cathartic for the Israelis than simply blasting Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities from the air, a containment and deterrence strategy that brings together mutual allies in the Middle East could lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime in the aggregate—without a shot ever having to be fired.
But as of this moment, it doesn’t like the Abraham Accords are preferred by any of the region’s actors. Instead, a hard power solution is at hand. Expect Israel to massively strike Iranian nuclear weapons facilities at any moment.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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