Putin’s Maximalist Strategy Is Paying Off In Ukraine
U.S. officials have stated that the current intelligence shows that Putin is not interested in a real peace deal at the moment.
Russia continues to maintain maximalist goals in Ukraine, according to U.S. intelligence and Congressional officials.
With peace talks about ending the conflict underway, U.S. officials have assessed that the Kremlin continues to believe that it can win the war on the battlefield—and hence is not truly committed to negotiations such as the recent round of discussions between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Putin Wants It All
Western intelligence and congressional officials have assessed in recent days that Putin retains maximalist goals in Ukraine and still wants to control all of the country.
Indeed, in discussions of the future of the war within Russia, Russian officials have been reiterating positions about retaining control over the Crimean Peninsula and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts—essentially all of southeastern Ukraine.
The same analysts suggest that Putin will not be satisfied until he controls Ukraine in its entirety.
“Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and U.S. officials in line with ISW’s longstanding assessment,” the Institute for the Study of War noted in its latest operational update on the conflict.
The Institute for the Study of War is a think-tank based in Washington, D.C. Since the start of the large-scale war in Ukraine, it has been providing accurate and timely tactical, operational, and strategic updates on the conflict.
ISW speculated that the Russian leader maintained a belief of the Kremlin’s superiority—and that “the Russian way of war” will prevail in Ukraine and expose the weaknesses of the United States and the West.
With its ongoing attritional strategy, the Russian military is making steady tactical gains every month. Although these gains come at an extremely heavy price, Putin has devoted few resources to the well-being of his troops, and has shown a willingness to suffer astronomical losses in order to achieve his goals in Ukraine.
“Putin’s theory of victory assumes that the Russian military can sustain slow, creeping advances on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can defend and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed.
Moreover, U.S. officials have stated that the current intelligence shows that Putin is not interested in a real peace deal at the moment. If that is the case, then Putin, a former KGB officer, is likely using the process to sow discord among Ukraine’s international partners as a way to stem the flow of security assistance.
“Many recent Russian statements show that Putin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
Indeed, the Kremlin has repeatedly disputed its neighbor’s sovereignty over the post-Cold War borders of 1991, which have been internationally recognized. Russian officials have also repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, and specifically that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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