Russia Is Still on the March Toward Kharkiv
The cost behind Russia’s tactical gains continues to be extraordinarily high.
For several months now, the Russian forces have been pushing hard in the Donbas region, in southeastern Ukraine. There has already been copious analysis of the piecemeal approach that the Russian military leadership has adopted in the Donbas in order to maximize its gains.
However, there is plenty of fighting elsewhere along the line of contact. In particular, following their expulsion from around the city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine in late 2022, the Russian forces have resumed their advance and are trying to expand a dangerous bridgehead.
Fighting Near Kharkiv
“In the northern Ukrainian oblast of Kharkiv, Russian forces have gradually expanded a bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil river,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the Ukraine conflict.
The Russian military first established the bridgehead in the final weeks of November. Since then, the Kremlin’s forces have slowly expanded their foothold with small tactical gains in the area.
“Russia’s focus in the area is the town of Dvorichna, which is contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Russia is also contesting for the town of Zapadne, 4km west from the Oskil,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Kharkiv is the second-largest city in Ukraine, and its capture was one of the Russian military’s primary objectives during the initial large-scale invasion. The Russian military besieged the city but failed to capture it. A subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed back the Russian forces and created a buffer zone around the city.
In order to get to Kharkiv, the Russian military needs to do a lot of things first. Capturing Kupiansk is one of those things. Located around 50 miles from the outskirts of Kharkiv, Kupiansk is a major logistical hub in eastern Ukraine.
“Russia is almost certainly attempting to apply pressure to the logistics hubs of Kupiansk, also located on the Oskil river, approximately 12km south of the bridgehead,” the British Military Intelligence stated.
There has already been a bitter struggle for control over Kupiansk. The Russian forces captured the town in the initial days of the invasion. But in the fall of 2022, the Ukrainian military liberated the town during a surprise counteroffensive in the region, with Russian forces fleeing in chaos in order to save themselves. Since then, the Ukrainian military has been in control of Kupiansk, using it to support offensive and defensive operations in the region. If Kupiansk falls to the Russian forces, Ukraine’s operations in the region will be seriously frustrated.
“Russian forces already control the supply lines east and south of the city, and are likely attempting to take control over northern supply routes into the city,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.
Russian Casualties
The cost behind Russia’s tactical gains continues to be extraordinarily high. Russian forces are averaging almost 1,500 casualties on a daily basis. In the last 24 hours alone, the Russian military lost approximately 1,430 men killed or wounded, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. In addition, the Russian forces lost approximately 74 unmanned aerial systems, 59 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 16 artillery guns and multiple launch rocket systems, 12 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 3 main battle tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment damaged or destroyed.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
