Russia Nears One Million Casualties As Ukraine War Grinds On
By relying heavily on unrepresented ethnic minorities far away from the centers of power in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the Kremlin ensures that public outcry against its “special military operation” in Ukraine remains under control.
The war in Ukraine has been the deadliest conflict for Russia since the end of World War II.
As negotiations for a 30-day ceasefire continue, the specter of one million total casualties is becoming increasingly more realistic for the Russian military. Although the majority of casualties have been wounded troops, the death toll is high. Indeed, more Russian troops have already been killed in the conflict than the entire invasion force that first invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022—kicking off the largest and deadliest armed conflict in Europe since 1945.
The Road to One Million Casualties
“The Russian Armed Forces have likely sustained approximately 900,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since invading Ukraine in 2022,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence estimate on the war in Ukraine.
In terms of a breakdown of Russian losses, the British Ministry of Defence estimated that approximately 200,000 to 250,000 Russian soldiers, mercenaries, and pro-Russian rebels have been killed, with around 700,000 wounded. These casualties mark Russia’s most significant losses since World War Two.
“Russian President Putin and the Russian military leadership highly likely prioritise their conflict objectives over the lives of Russian soldiers,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
The Russian military is pursuing an attritional strategy in Ukraine, taking advantage of its larger pool of manpower and casualty tolerance to capture as much territory as possible. However, the price of this effort has been quite high—both for Russia and for Ukraine.
“They are almost certainly prepared to tolerate continuously high casualty rates so long as this does not negatively affect public or elite support for the war, and those losses can be replaced,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
Russian casualty numbers experienced a low dip in February, averaging 1,255 casualties a day. This was the lowest daily average since August. Overall, the Russian forces lost approximately 35,140 men in February, a decrease of about 13,000 from January.
However, the Russian forces continue to lose well over 1,000 men killed and wounded every day. And in 2025 so far, the Kremlin has lost over 100,000 men in the fighting.
Russia’s Ethnic Minorities Face Disproportionate Losses
When it comes to those actually making the sacrifice on the Russian side, an ugly realization emerges. The Kremlin continues to rely on ethnic minorities and mercenaries, including prisoners who deploy to the frontlines in exchange for promises of freedom.
“Putin and the Russian leadership … place significantly less value on the lives of ethnic minority Russian citizens from impoverished regions, with Russian recruitment efforts consequently focussed [sic] disproportionately on these areas,” the British Ministry of Defence stated.
By relying heavily on unrepresented ethnic minorities far away from the centers of power in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the Kremlin ensures that public outcry against its “special military operation” in Ukraine remains under control. And as long as there are no serious objections to the war from the periphery, the Kremlin can continue with its attritional strategy.
“Slavic Russians from urban centres such as Moscow and St. Petersburg have contributed disproportionately fewer service personnel than their poorer, ethnic minority compatriots,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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