Russia Needs Iran Now More Than Ever
The necessity of entering into agreements with third countries to sustain the war challenges the Kremlin’s notion of military superiority.
The large-scale invasion of Ukraine is pushing Russia to its limits. Moscow has had to come close with countries that are shunned by the international community.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a new 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement.
The agreement seeks to bring the two countries closer together. But whether it succeeds or not remains to be seen.
Russo-Iranian Relations
“Russia and Iran’s partnership has almost certainly been driven by mutual security and economic interests, with both states growing closer since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the conflict.
Tehran has provided important military aid to Moscow. Specifically, Iran has provided suicide drones, ballistic missiles, and other munitions. The Shahed-series of kinetic unmanned aerial systems have been particularly useful to the Russian war effort.
Due to international sanctions and chronic production issues, the Russian defense and aerospace industry has failed to provide sufficient advanced munitions to the Russian military. Enter the Iranian suicide drones. Moscow has used these drones to target and attack Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure.
“Russia has remained reliant on Iranian military support as the war in Ukraine has continued. However, a level of mistrust remains, and tensions in the relationship will highly likely present obstacles to the expansion of their cooperation,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.
Iran is largely a pariah state because of its leadership obsession with acquiring nuclear weapons and funding terrorism. Russia’s economic support is important to Iran—perhaps not as important as Iran’s military aid to the Russian military, but very important overall.
“The agreement is part of a wider framework of cooperation between the two states across various sectors, almost certainly representing a commitment to strengthen bilateral ties. It covers cooperation across defense and security, economy, trade, transportation, energy, technology, information and cyberspace security,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has entered into agreements with Belarus and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). However, contrary to the agreement with Russia, the agreements with Belarus and North Korea don’t include a mutual defense clause.
Although there is no official mutual defense clause with North Korea, Pyongyang has sent approximately 11,000 troops to fight on behalf of Russia. Iran has not contributed troops to Russia’s “special military operation.”
“The agreement highly likely provides a legal framework for further Iranian-Russian cooperation, formalising existing and future collaboration efforts. However, it is unlikely to represent any significant uplift to the partnership or materially expand the scope of their current cooperation,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.
The necessity of entering into agreements with third countries to sustain the “special military operation” challenges the Kremlin’s notion of military superiority. Almost three years of fighting with a smaller country have exposed the serious shortcomings of the Russian military. The fact that the Kremlin has had to ask for help from pariah states like Iran and North Korea is a sign of weakness.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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