Russia’s Attrition Strategy is a Nightmare for Ukraine
The Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces average 1,500 losses every day. In exchange for those casualties, though, they gain Ukrainian territory.
The Russian forces are slowly but gradually making advances across several parts of the contact line. Most of the Russian progress is focused in the Donbas region and eastern Ukraine.
The Russian military leadership has finally found a strategy that suits its capabilities, as well as the appetite of the Kremlin.
In January, the Russian forces made important tactical gains, albeit smaller than those made in the previous month.
Russian Progress in January
“In January 2025, Russia’s territorial advances in Ukraine slowed as they took approximately 320 sq km, compared with approximately 400 sq km in December 2024,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in a recent operational estimate of the conflict.
The Russian military’s attritional strategy that exchanges troops for territory has been extensively covered in Western media since the start of the conflict. The Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces average 1,500 losses every day. In exchange for those casualties, though, they gain Ukrainian territory.
“Through 2024, Russian advances have been accelerating, with over 700 sq km taken in November 2024, one of the quickest rates of advance since the early stages of the conflict,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
The Ukrainian military is having a hard time stopping the piecemeal loss of its territory due to manpower and ammunition shortages.
In addition to progress in Ukraine, Russian forces have made some gains inside the Kursk Oblast in Russia. The Ukrainian military has been in control of a sizable salient since August. Kyiv launched the surprise foray with an eye toward easing the pressure inside Ukraine. Indeed, Russian progress in Kursk is much slower than progress in Ukraine.
“In Russia’s Kursk oblast, Russia made minor advances in January 2025. North Korean (DPRK) units which had been deployed on offensive combat operations in Kursk Oblast have temporarily withdrawn from frontline positions, likely to rest and refit before redeploying,” the British Ministry of Defence stated.
The North Korean government deployed approximately 11,000 troops to Russia in support of the Kremlin’s “special military operation.” Russian military leadership used the North Korean troops almost exclusively against the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk Oblast. However, the North Koreans were not accustomed to modern warfare and suffered extremely high casualties. Kyiv estimated that in just a few weeks of fighting, the North Koreans lost as many as 4,000 troops killed and wounded, forcing Moscow to pull the North Korean contingent off the frontline entirely.
“This is almost certainly primarily due to heavy losses sustained during attacks against Ukrainian-held positions,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded.
Russian Losses
Over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces suffered approximately 1,170 casualties killed or wounded, according to data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. In total, Kyiv estimates that the Russian forces have lost over 850,000 troops killed or wounded in almost three years of fighting.
In addition to these heavy losses, the Russian forces lost approximately 137 unmanned aerial systems, 109 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 35 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, 16 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 9 main battle tanks, 3 air defense systems, 1 aircraft, and 1 piece of special equipment damaged or destroyed.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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