Russia’s Sukhoi Design Bureau Prepares to Build a Sixth-Generation Fighter
There is little doubt that the Russians are taking their time developing their own sixth-generation warplane—but this is not a sign of weakness.
Russia wants to get involved in the race for a sixth-generation warplane. Thus far, the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and two groups of European powers are developing their own sixth-generation warplanes. The leaders in this field, for now, are China and the United States.
But Russia’s Sukhoi Design Bureau is quietly leading the development of another sixth-generation warplane.
Sukhoi Takes Point on Plane Design
Evgeny Fedosov, the scientific director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems, told Russian media last year, “We are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting research, exchanging views with military specialists.” Fedosov explained that the sixth-generation aircraft, “should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is necessary to understand what the armed conflicts of the future will be like.”
It is believed that Sukhoi is basing their designs for a potential sixth-generation warplane on the Su-57 “Felon” (NATO reporting name), Russia’s fifth-generation warplane. The fact that it was an export plane that, until very recently, has struggled to find an export market should have no bearing on the fact that Sukhoi is basing their possible sixth-generation plane on the Su-57. In fact, the Su-57 is a very capable plane. Indeed, some reports suggest that the vaunted Su-57 “almost” possesses the capabilities of a sixth-generation warplane.
One of the most important aspects of the prospective Sukhoi sixth-generation warplane, aside from improved stealth capabilities, is the need for a new power plant. Currently, Russian engineers do not have a powerplant that can seamlessly switch between supersonic and hypersonic air travel while using the least amount of fuel possible.
A sixth-generation warplane must perform supersonic and hypersonic maneuvers at extended ranges—meaning more power and, therefore, more fuel consumption. So, the key for Russia must be the development of new engines that can meet these challenges.
The Plane’s Artificial Intelligence Factor
Aside from these complications, the Sukhoi Design Bureau is more than capable of building a sixth-generation warplane, notably on the relatively extended timetable that Russia has outlined. Fedosov has noted that he anticipates the Sukhoi sixth-generation warplane to utilize artificial intelligence (AI)—allowing the plane to link to and control autonomous systems, notably drones.
In January of this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian government and the country’s biggest bank, Sberbank, to build cooperation with China to jointly develop artificial intelligence.
China has already proven it can attain parity with the United States in the realm of AI development. Therefore, Russia partnering with the Chinese could supercharge their own development of AI—and, in turn, further Sukhoi’s attempts to develop a reliable sixth-generation warplane.
Crucial to Russia’s plan is its willingness to wait. Unlike the Americans and Chinese, which are pushing the limits of their sixth-generation design capabilities to get these systems flying en masse within the next decade—no matter how unlikely or impractical that might be—Sukhoi is taking a more circumspect approach to the development of their sixth-generation plane. Indeed, Fedosov acknowledged that both America and China have significant leads over the Russians, and did not believe that Sukhoi’s working prototype would be available until much later than when the Chinese and Americans think their systems will be airborne.
By Waiting, the Russians are Being Strategic
However, holding off on developing the plane might give the Russians some cost-saving advantages. After all, they could gain access to sixth-generation engineering techniques from both the Chinese and Americans, cutting down on some of the high costs regarding the R&D cycle for such a project. China is famous for this strategy: from the 1990s onward, its aerospace industry was able to substantially save costs by piggybacking off of existing American and Russian technology, sometimes through illicit means. In the years to come, Russia might be able to turn the tables, pursuing a similar strategy with regard to Beijing.
Other reports out of Russia about Sukhoi’s proposed sixth-generation warplane indicate that there is a real divide amongst Russian engineers as to whether their new sixth-generation plane should be adapted for beyond visual range engagements—akin to America’s F-35 Lightning II today—or if they should be made for close-quarter dogfighting, more in line with the Sukhoi Su-57’s role. How Sukhoi ultimately comes down on this debate will inform the outcome and timing of the program. What’s more, whatever model the American and Chinese systems end up favoring will likely significantly impact how the Russians create their bird.
Of course, the Americans and Chinese may yet learn the most important lesson of all: regardless of the nation developing it, the sixth-generation warplane is a tremendously expensive vanity project that delivers few benefits over fifth-generation fighters and distracts war planners from developing cheaper, more efficient systems. If Russia sees how U.S. and Chinese sixth-generation warplanes underdeliver and overcharge, Moscow may yet decide to yank the program entirely and instead focus on building swarms of cheaper stealth drones.
There is little doubt, however, that the Russians are taking their time developing their own sixth-generation warplane. This is not a sign of weakness. Instead, it is indicative of wisdom—letting the underlying technologies mature and seeing where Russia’s main competitors on the world stage, the United States and China, ultimately end up with their sixth-generation systems.
After all, the battle belongs neither to the swift nor strong, but to he that endureth.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / BeAvPhoto.