The Air War Over Ukraine Is Heating Up
Even with several layers of air defense systems active over Ukraine, Kyiv is straining to keep Russian bombs and missiles from striking its territory.
The war in Ukraine is mainly being fought on the ground—along a “line of contact” that spans hundreds of miles divides the two combatants, each of which is trying to advance and capture territory. As a result, naval and air warfare have taken a back seat.
Although the lack of naval skirmishes is understandable—given both sides’ missile strength in the Black Sea—the lack of air action over eastern Ukraine is harder to explain to someone with more than a casual understanding of the conflict’s dynamics. After all, since humans put weapons on aircraft, air power has been deciding battles and wars.
The truth is that, since the conflict began, there has been a stalemate in the air war. The Russian Aerospace Forces, despite vast superiority in numbers and quality, have failed to establish air superiority over the battlefield. On the other hand, Ukraine is fighting a defensive air war with the means it has. Kyiv’s introduction of new and more fighter jets from its Western partners could enable it to seriously contest the skies, and might even change the course of the war.
The War from the Air
“After 3 years of conflict, Russia’s Aerospace Forces, despite technological and numerical advantage, have failed to gain air superiority over Ukraine. Russia has resorted to using their tactical level aviation—such as SU-34 aircraft—as airborne artillery,” the British Defence Ministry assessed in a recent intelligence update about the war in Ukraine.
Of course, Russian air power is not limited to tactical aviation. The Kremlin possesses a large bomber fleet, and it has been using it for long range strikes against Ukrainian urban centers, critical infrastructure, and military bases. These bombers primarily use long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. However, the demands of the war, coupled with international sanctions and chronic issues in the Russian defense and aerospace industries, mean that the Russian Aerospace Forces have been regularly running out of missiles. The dearth of long-range munitions is so acute that Russian aircraft have periodically resorted to using the wrong munitions—for example, firing an anti-ship missile against a ground target—with concomitant poor results.
To maintain continued pressure against Ukraine, the Russian military has resorted to using suicide drones. Much cheaper—but also less destructive—suicide drones force the Ukrainian military to expend precious resources to counter them while allowing Moscow to rebuild its missile stocks. Iran has been the main provider of unmanned aerial systems to Russia, supplying thousands of drones and the necessary training courses.
“Russia’s consistent use of One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) has likely allowed Russia the space and time to recuperate its Long Range Aviation fleet, and their associated Air Launched Cruise Missile and Air Launched Ballistic Missile stocks,” the Defence Ministry wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
The Ukrainian air defense umbrella is one of the best in the world right now, especially after the injection of key security aid from the United States and NATO. However, even with several layers of air defense systems active, Kyiv is straining to keep Russian bombs and missiles from striking its territory. Moreover, the system’s continued operation has been placed in doubt by the decision of the Trump administration to suspend all aid indefinitely, pending the resolution of the war through diplomatic means.
“While Russia retains the ability to use these assets, the ultimate effect is that the Air Defence picture for Ukraine is increasingly busy, complex and challenging,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its intelligence assessment.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / paparazzza.