Trump’s Foreign Policy Vision Collides With Middle East Reality
Trump might defy the odds and secure a lasting resolution to the Israel-Palestine problem. But the odds are not in his favor. Nor is historical precedent.
President Donald Trump, who famously wrote The Art of the Deal in the 1980s, is intent on applying those principles expressed in that bestselling book to the Oval Office. Specifically, Trump appears to have his eye on what many American presidents have viewed as the Holy Grail of foreign policy achievements: he wants to be the American president who achieves lasting Middle East peace.
For Trump, the deal is all about real estate—his bread-and-butter. He looks at Gaza and he sees not Mogadishu on the Mediterranean but the Riviera of the Middle East.
There’s just one problem with Trump’s vision: the Palestinian Arabs are in the way. So, Trump has proposed evacuating the two million or so Arabs who live among the rubble to what he ambiguously refers to as a better place. And, if Trump’s statements are to be taken literally (a dangerous proposition), Americans will “own” Gaza in order to rebuild it into that Mideast Riviera.
However, in response to domestic voices howling about the costs of such a project, the White House has been explicit: no U.S. troops will be deployed to Gaza, and U.S. tax dollars will not be used to pay for the reconstruction. Instead, Trump wants the region’s power players to do something—anything—to move the geopolitical ball forward.
There’s only one problem: the Arab states are not inclined to put up their own money to support the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and American ownership over the strip. And therein lies the problem with Trump’s grand vision.
2,000 Sick Kids Is Not the Win the White House Thinks It Is
After it sounded as though President Trump was threatening to cut off key U.S. aid to countries, such as Jordan and Egypt, the Jordanian King Abdullah II, while visiting the White House, consented to taking 2,000 sickly Palestinian children. Abdullah II made clear, however, that he would make no further moves until the Egyptians put forward their still-developing plan.
To be clear, though, 2,000 sickly Palestinian children is not even one percent of the Gaza population. Indeed, it is the least threatening population possible. And that’s the real rub: the Arab states do not want to absorb Palestinian Arabs from Gaza, not least because many of them are radical Islamists who will turn their ire against the Arab host governments—as Jordan and Lebanon each experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.
Immediately after Abdullah’s meeting with Trump, the Egyptian government canceled its meeting with Trump “if Gaza is on the schedule.” All Arab leaders are set to meet in Riyadh. What’s more, the Turks and Iranians are now coordinating responses with the Arabs. The goal of the Trump administration should be the containment of Iran in the Middle East above all else. And Trump needs the Arabs, and even the Turks, onboard with that policy as much as he needs Israel.
But that goal has now been subordinated to the yearning for a resolution to the Israel-Palestine quagmire.
In The Art of the Deal, Trump wrote that his bargaining strategy was always to aim unreasonably high in initial negotiations, reasoning that he could settle for less later and still come out ahead. So his proclamations about America coming to “own” Gaza—something neither the Israelis nor Arabs really want—might best be viewed through that lens. Even if America does not come to own Gaza, Trump’s pressure could (one hopes) force the Arabs and Israelis to work together toward real, lasting peace. It’s an unorthodox action—yet if there’s one man who has proven he can defy the odds stacked against him, it is Donald Trump.
Trump is Sabotaging His Own Abraham Accords
But for all his braggadocio, the reason that Trump’s 2020 “Abraham Accords” were so successful was because they explicitly refused to make resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict a priority. In so doing, that allowed for accords to move forward where so many other proposals historically have not. Normalization of ties between many Arab states and Israel, once considered unthinkable even a generation ago, was at hand. Together, these states and the new alliance would have set aside their differences, pooled resources together, and contained Iran.
In response to Trump’s latest proposal, however, the Arabs are consolidating with each other—and their fellow Muslims in Turkey and Iran—to form what will likely be a united front against the United States and Israel. When the Arab leaders meet in Riyadh, this will be their goal, irrespective of whatever minor concessions they proffer (like accepting 2,000 sick children from Gaza) to Trump to keep him distracted long enough.
The Arab Peace Initiative Non-Starter
What will likely come out of the Arab summit will be a repeat of the call for creating peace along the lines of the Arab Peace Initiative. This plan was put forward by the Arabs at least four other times, in 2002, 2007, 2017, and 2024.
It’s a non-starter because the Israelis, not incorrectly, view it as less of a peace plan and more of an ultimatum. The initiative calls for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, the eastern half of Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. It also calls for the “right of return” for the Palestinians, meaning that any Palestinian displaced by the various wars between Israelis and Arabs since 1948—and his or her descendents—will be allowed to return to their homes within Israel.
Not only is this a non-starter, but it’s also utterly impossible to implement, even if Israel agreed to these things (which, naturally, they cannot if they wish to preserve Israel’s existence). Trump’s hope is probably that the two sides are forced to sit down at a big, beautiful table and haggle until real concessions are made.
Again, Trump might defy the odds. But the odds are not in his favor. Nor is historical precedent. For all the new ideas, to put it politely, on old problems being issued by the U.S. president when it comes to the Israel-Palestine issue, inevitably the ancient cultures that dominate the region will revert to their preferred positions and Trump’s initiative in the region will seize up under the weight of the region’s own predilections.
Whether this happens immediately or over the course of several months, Trump’s visionary foreign policy will crash on the rocky shoals of Mideast geopolitics, just like the others who came before him. To avoid this terrible fate, Trump should immediately extricate himself—and the United States—from the Mideast “peace” process, focus only on what is in the national strategic interests of America in the region (containing Iran and countering Islamic radicalism), and forego further delusions of resolving the intractable Israel-Palestine problem.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock.