Trump’s Nord Stream 2 Gambit Puts Europe’s Energy Future Back in Putin’s Grip
Europe’s energy future is at risk as Trump’s Nord Stream 2 negotiations threaten energy security and deepen reliance on Russian gas.
When Donald Trump spoke at the United Nations to warn Germany about its risky dependence on Russian energy, German diplomats laughed at him. But after three brutal years of war in Ukraine, Europe has learned the hard way that Moscow was never a reliable energy partner. So, why is Trump now pressuring Europe to return to the very dependence he once condemned?
Earlier in March, the German press revealed that Trump’s special envoy held secret negotiations with the Kremlin, reportedly to discuss restarting Russian gas supplies through Nord Stream 2—a pipeline sabotaged in 2022 and left dormant ever since. It’s a reckless move that risks undoing years of Europe’s hard-fought energy resilience, dragging the continent back into Moscow’s grip.
Germany, the sole gateway for Nord Stream gas, has made it clear it wants no part of Russian energy. Yet Trump seems dead set on strong-arming Europe into sacrificing its energy future—all under the pretense of securing an elusive peace in Ukraine.
But Trump ignores the reality that European energy purchases have long bankrolled Russia’s war machine—a fact he only brings forward to bash Europe for supposedly not doing enough. And let’s not forget Russia’s three-year campaign of hybrid warfare that manipulated gas flows, launched cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and sabotaged undersea energy cables in the Baltic Sea—all to keep Europe weak and ultimately reliant on Moscow.
If Europe follows Trump’s lead, it will stumble back into the pre-war energy trap, once again at the mercy of the Kremlin. Every euro spent on Russian gas will fuel the next war, the next invasion, the next act of sabotage. And when Putin strikes again, Europe will have even less leverage and no excuses left for its naivety.
Some point out that Europe’s industries are dying under the squeeze of soaring energy prices and that rejecting cheaper Russian gas is a luxury we can no longer afford. Germany, for example, is grappling with an economic downturn, with industrial output still 10 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
But returning to Russian energy is a short-term fix with devastating long-term consequences. Europe has already poured over $140 billion into supporting Ukraine and set aside another $840 billion for defense. Compromising this trillion-dollar investment in security for the vague hope of cheaper gas is a hard sell.
Instead of bowing to Trump’s reckless demands, Europe must treat energy security with the same urgency as its military strategy—above all, by completing its divorce from Russian gas and accelerating the green transition.
True, this transition requires an additional $440 billion in investment, and rising resistance from a more fiscally conservative EU Parliament threatens to slow progress. But abandoning it now would only leave Europe’s economic future exposed to geopolitical blackmail from foreign energy suppliers.
To balance its immediate energy needs with a sustainable, independent future, Europe must expand its energy partnerships beyond traditional suppliers. While the United States, Norway, and Algeria have helped offset Russian supply, their prices remain volatile and costly.
For long-term stability, Europe must look further afield—particularly to the Gulf states. Nations like Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman control vast natural gas reserves, accounting for a fifth of global LNG exports. Unlike Russia, they have no interest in using energy as a weapon against Europe.
If carefully cultivated, this partnership could extend far beyond energy security, as the Gulf nations are increasingly investing in Europe’s struggling economies. Take the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), which has recently completed its acquisition of Covestro, a German chemical giant responsible for 5 percent of Germany’s GDP, and is now pursuing a $60 billion mega-merger with Austria’s OMV to create a global chemicals powerhouse.
It’s not just the Emiratis either, as Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Telecom Company (STC)’s recent acquisition of almost a 10 percent stake in Spain’s Telefónica for $2.2 billion offers Europe a strategic lifeline to revitalize its industries while maintaining its commitment to energy diversification.
This is because the Gulf states are undergoing their own energy transformation. Once wholly dependent on fossil fuels, they are now pivoting toward sustainability to remain economically relevant in a post-fossil fuel world. ADNOC’s Covestro acquisition reflects this shift, with a growing focus on sustainable chemicals. Similarly, Masdar, the United Arab Emirates’s renewable energy company, has secured $6.8 billion in deals for wind and solar projects in Spain and Greece, aiming for 100 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030. By deepening ties with the Gulf, Europe can secure both its immediate energy needs and long-term sustainability—without ever needing to turn back to Moscow once the war ends.
Europe stands at a pivotal moment. It can take the easy road—succumbing to diplomatic pressure, reopening its doors to Russian energy, and gambling on a costly yet fragile peace. Or it can commit to real security by reinforcing its energy independence, strengthening its economy, and safeguarding its future.
Europe must choose resilience over appeasement because if it stumbles back into dependence, the next military crisis won’t be far behind.
Dr. Maurizio Geri is a former NATO analyst, an Italian Navy Lieutenant POLAD reservist, and a GMU postdoctoral researcher/EU Marie Curie Fellow (currently at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels) who specializes in EU-NATO cooperation in tech and Russian-Chinese hybrid warfare in the energy-resources-climate security nexus.
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