Ukraine’s Victory Will Ensure Critical Mineral Security
If Western support falters, Ukraine’s reserves of rare earth minerals will be left at the mercy of Russia and China.
The global economy is growing more and more dependent on critical minerals—resources vital for technological advancement, the energy transition, and even military capabilities. There are vast reserves of these minerals in Ukraine. The United States and its allies must decide whether to help Ukraine keep hold of its vast reserves of critical minerals or risk these slipping into the possession of Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang.
Russia’s war on Ukraine, and by extension, the Western security architecture, is multidimensional: it extends from the military battlefield, cyberspace, information manipulation, and propaganda to the disruption of trade routes and supply chains and beyond. This includes mineral resources.
Rare earth elements and other important raw materials such as titanium, lithium, gallium, and graphite are essential for the production of high-tech electronics, wind turbines, and electric vehicle batteries. They are also widely used in the aerospace and defense industry.
Global demand for these minerals is surging, driven by the shift towards clean energy, the growth of digital technologies, and the ongoing arms race among world powers. Cooperation between the United States and Estonia, including initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership, underscores the importance of diversifying supply chains. The recently adopted EU Critical Raw Materials Act helps further encourage innovation, attract strategic investments, and uphold robust environmental protection standards.
These valuable resources are abundant in Ukraine. For example, Ukraine is one of the main exporters of titanium and manganese to the United States, where these are used in the U.S. aerospace, steel, and automotive industries. However, Ukraine’s critical minerals lie extremely close to the current frontline. Were these areas to fall into Russian hands, Moscow and its partners would have an enormous trove at their disposal—one that would allow them to consolidate power in key industries, like defense and energy, and further their geopolitical ambitions.
What’s more, we can be quite sure that Russia would plunder these reserves with no regard for either the local population or the environment. At the same time, this would limit the supply of these minerals to global markets, especially to the European and American economies that are heavily reliant on imports of critical minerals.
China is already a global leader in the production and processing of rare earth minerals. It has created vulnerabilities for Western nations by securing the supply chains for Chinese companies and cementing Beijing’s dominance in key industries. The result would be the undermining of efforts to diversify supply chains, instead ensuring China’s long-term leverage over global economic and military power.
North Korea, which has long relied on a mix of illicit activities and external partnerships to expand its military capabilities, could also pose a threat. The Pyongyang regime’s strategic alliances with Russia and China could make it a beneficiary of any long-term control over these assets. The combination of Russia’s military presence in Ukraine and China’s economic might give all three powers a window of opportunity to exploit the minerals with far-reaching implications for global security and global power dynamics. If Ukraine’s mineral wealth were to fall into the hands of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, there would be a shift in global power. Authoritarian regimes would gain a new level of influence that challenges liberal democratic values.
Therefore, it is vital that the West ensures Ukraine’s sovereignty not only over its territory but also over its resources. This means securing Ukraine’s military victory.
If Ukraine retains these resources, they will be used for the benefit of Western economies, as proposed by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself. According to him, the United States, along with designated partners, could sign a special agreement for the joint protection of Ukraine’s critical resources, as well as joint investment in and utilization of their economic potential.
Helping Ukraine to secure control over its vast areas of critical minerals is in the direct interest of the United States and its partners. If we were to fail in helping Ukraine to victory and the minerals are used for the benefit of authoritarian powers, the consequences would be devastating, reaching far beyond Ukraine’s borders over decades to come.
Margus Tsahkna is the Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Republic of Estonia. Follow him on X: @Tsahkna.
Editor’s Note: Links have been added to this article for reference purposes.
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