Vladimir Putin Is Preparing for War Against Starlink
Moscow has already made clear that it regards the Ukraine War as an existential conflict for its future. The Kremlin will stop at nothing to achieve victory—even if it means risking a wider war with the United States by attacking their key space assets.
The war in Ukraine has transformed the geopolitical situation and brought about changes to the technologies and tactics that warring states use in modern warfare.
At the start of the Ukraine War, Russia’s swift victory was considered by many a fait accompli. One of the earliest moves that the Russians made against Ukraine was to attempt to electronically isolate them, cutting off Internet access along the front. But after a public exchange over X (formerly Twitter) at the start of the Ukraine War, SpaceX head Elon Musk granted Kyiv access to his Starlink satellite network.
That move ensured that the Ukrainians were able to stay in the fight against the Russian Armed Forces—sending the Kremlin, and the world, a clear wake-up call about the immense value of satellites in war. And, indeed, in the months that followed, Ukraine’s reliable and seemingly un-jammable communications access seriously complicated Russia’s invasion plans.
Of course, Moscow was not simply going to abandon these plans. Instead, both the Kremlin and its Chinese partners went to work on various methods of stunting Starlink’s capabilities. China and Russian correctly assessed that the Starlink model of smaller, cheaper, and redundant satellites gave anyone using them a tactical advantage. Accordingly, the Russians have spent the last several years perfecting methods for disabling Starlink.
Enter Russia’s Kalinka and Tobol advanced electronic warfare (EW) systems developed to disrupt satellite communications and navigation, reflecting Russia’s significant and ongoing investment in counterspace capabilities.
Russia’s Terrible Tobol Jammer
Designated as 14Ts227, the Tobol system is a stationary EW platform originally designed to protect Russian satellites from jamming by monitoring and countering interference. It has been repurposed for offensive operations, targeting satellite signals such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Starlink. Tobol operates by jamming signals, either through downlink jamming (disrupting signals from satellites to ground receivers) or uplink jamming (interfering with signals sent to t satellites).
Tobol installations are relatively few. In fact, there are believed to be only seven Tobol stations across Russia, according to a 2024 report cited by Amit Chaturvedi of NTDTV World. One of the most prominent locations is in Kaliningrad, Russia’s European exclave located between Poland and Lithuania. The Russians have armed Kaliningrad to the teeth, using it as a poison pill against nearby NATO.
The Tobol system has been linked to widespread GPS jamming in the Baltic region, affecting thousands of flights and ships since at least 2023. In Ukraine, meanwhile, this system is believed to have targeted Starlink nodes, disrupting synchronization between satellites and ground terminals.
In all, Tobol has led to significant problems in Ukraine and across Europe. Notably, European travel has been deeply negatively impacted by Tobol. It is such a threat that Finnair suspended flights to certain airports in the Baltic region in 2024 to avoid any life-threatening disruptions to their civilian flight operations.
The Tobol’s range and power even allow it to create an electromagnetic shield, potentially protecting Russian assets from satellite-guided munitions.
Moscow’s Kalinka System Can Target Individual Starlink Terminals
But the actual “Starlink Killer” is the Kalinka system, which can detect and disrupt signals to and from Starlink satellites—aiming to interfere with Ukrainian military communications and drone operations. What’s more, the Kalinka is supposedly able to disrupt the functioning of Starlink’s sister constellation, the system that SpaceX specifically designed for the United States military to use, Starshield.
The Kalinka’s rumored ability to threaten Starshield raises significant alarms among US defense strategists. While Tobol disrupts broader GPS signals, Kalinka’s precision targeting could pose a more direct threat to specific military operations—although, of course, its full effectiveness remains unconfirmed in open sources.
Unlike Tobol, which broadly jams satellite navigation, Kalinka reportedly has the ability to identify and target specific terminals, Including those with enhanced security features. This makes Kalinka particularly concerning for the United States and its allies, as it could undermine critical battlefield connectivity among the Ukrainian Armed Forces spread across a brittle frontline with Russia.
Russia is a Space Superpower
Russia means business. Moscow has already made clear that it regards the Ukraine War as an existential conflict for its future. The Kremlin will stop at nothing to achieve victory—even if it means risking a wider war with the United States by attacking their key space assets.
Having already spent the better part of the last decade developing a robust arsenal of counterspace weapons specifically designed to stunt U.S. military power projection from space, Moscow may have just created an entirely new set of systems that can drastically degrade a capability that the rest of the U.S. military was investing heavily in.
That’s because the Starlink and Starshield model—having disaggregated, cheap, and relatively small satellites that cannot perform highly complex tasks, but are easier to replace than existing constellations—is where the Pentagon is taking the U.S. military in terms of its satellites. And the Russians (and Chinese) are in the process of neutering this capability with their new systems.
If Russia really does have a Starlink and Starshield killer, then they have caught up to the United States in a very real, disturbing way. And that means, after more than a decade of fighting to fundamentally transform American satellites by making them more survivable along the Starlink/Starshield model, it is now time to go back to the drawing board. Because if Russia has overcome these new satellite capabilities, then the Chinese certainly can as well—and all the money spent on reforming the satellite constellations by making them survivable will have to be spent enhancing their survivability once more.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
