Vladimir Putin’s Attrition Strategy Is Paying Off in Ukraine
U.S. military aid to Ukraine is by far the most important element for Ukrainian troops to continue their homeland’s defense.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is fighting an attritional war in Ukraine.
He knows that with each passing day, thousands of Russian troops are killed and wounded on the frontlines. The human toll for Russia thus far exceeds 835,000 casualties.
He also knows that the Russian military is losing scores, if not hundreds, of heavy weapon systems and vehicles on a daily basis. But his whole model hinges on losing these men and weapon systems—or, at least, accepting that their loss is the price necessary to attrite the Ukrainians and slowly take away their land. And this strategy is meeting with success: over the past nine months, the Russian forces have captured hundreds of square miles of Ukrainian territory.
To remain in the fight, the Ukrainian military needs weapons and ammunition. Putin and his Kremlin advisers are protracting the conflict, hoping that the incoming administration of President Donald Trump and the international community will tire out and abandon Ukraine.
Vital Military Aid
“Putin’s longstanding theory of victory relies on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine, and only unwavering Western support and consistent deliveries of Western military assistance to Kyiv can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer the concessions necessary for any resolution to the conflict acceptable to the United States, Europe, and Ukraine,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.
The United States has provided more than $65 billion in direct security aid to Ukraine. In addition to Washington’s contribution, the other members of the international coalition have provided tens of billions of dollars worth of military aid to Kyiv. For example, the United Kingdom has provided approximately $10 billion of military aid to Ukraine. And dollars are not the only useful metric for understanding assistance: London has led the way in providing certain cutting-edge military capabilities, including Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and Challenger 2 main battle tanks.
However, U.S. military aid to Ukraine is by far the most important element for Ukrainian troops to continue their homeland’s defense. For instance, the U.S. alone has provided Ukraine with half a billion rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades. There is no realistic alternative supplier, and without those 500 million bullets and grenades, the Ukrainian units on the front lines wouldn’t be able to operate.
Trump’s Stance on Ukraine Is Still Unclear
Some analysts predicted that Trump would immediately suspend aid to Ukraine following his inauguration, but these reports have proven to be inaccurate (or at least premature). In a January 20 statement, the new State Department under Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed America’s support for the embattled nation.
“Ukraine is a key regional strategic partner that has undertaken significant efforts to modernize its military and increase its interoperability with NATO,” the State Department stated. “It remains an urgent security assistance priority to provide Ukraine the equipment it needs to defend itself against Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
But will the military aid continue? That is ultimately a question for President Trump and the new administration. Everyone wants the war to end. The only question is on what terms—and what price Ukraine and America are willing to pay to stop Putin.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
.jpg){kind=link}