Europe Looks East to Central Asia
The European Union and Central Asia must continue moving engagement to the next level, from discussions and statements to actions across a broader spectrum.
The first-ever European Union (EU)-Central Asia (CA) summit will take place between April 3–4 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Josef Sikela, the European Union’s Commissioner for International Partnerships, recently highlighted the importance of this region, as “Central Asia is a €340 billion [$368 billion] economy that’s growing fast.” Indeed, Central Asia has great potential, and the upcoming summit will be a diplomatic milestone that could cement inter-regional trade and investment.
Trade relations between Europe and Central Asia are already strong. However, diversification is necessary. European countries and companies are primarily interested in Central Asia’s vast energy and mineral resources, namely oil, gas, minerals, and critical minerals. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, or Middle Corridor, has grown in importance as an alternative route for moving goods from Central Asia, across the Caspian Sea, through the Caucasus, to the Black Sea and Türkiye, and eventually to the European market. The Middle Corridor can “cut transport times between Europe and Asia to just fifteen days, giving us a crucial alternative to traditional routes,” Sikela explained. The future of the corridor and further reduction of transport times will depend on the continued duration of the war in Ukraine and whether Russia’s relations with Europe will improve.
Given the diverse foreign policy priorities and ideologies of governments across Europe and Central Asia, it is doubtful that a diplomatic alliance will be formed in Samarkand. Moreover, it is wrong to assume that the five Central Asian countries have a similar eagerness to engage with Europe. Dictatorial Turkmenistan continues to focus on its neutral foreign policy, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have strengthened ties with China in recent years. On the other hand, Uzbekistan, the summit’s host, wants to improve relations with Europe.
Similarly, Kazakhstan is particularly interested in engaging with Europe. Leading up to the summit, Astana has carried out significant initiatives to build commercial relations and increase investment: the Kazakhstani investment agency Kazakh Invest and the embassy in Germany launched a new publication in March aimed at the German business community to introduce Kazakhstan’s investment potential.
Moreover, on March 18, the Benelux Chamber of Commerce co-organized the Benelux-Kazakhstan Trade Talks at Maqsut Narikbayev University in Astana. More than twenty Kazakhstani companies, government representatives, and representatives from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg (the Benelux nations) reportedly met in the Kazakhstani capital. The meeting was itself a prelude to the Third Belgian-Kazakh Business Council Meeting in Brussels, scheduled for early June.
Areas of particular interest for the EU regarding Kazakhstan include strengthening supply chains for raw critical minerals, expanding renewable energy and green technologies, developing faster trade routes via the Middle Corridor, and improving digital connectivity.
At a National Kurultai (or national council) in mid-March, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev discussed the regionalization of global politics and the struggle for spheres of influence. The country is already known for its multi-vector foreign policy, and the head of state further argued that “to protect our national interests, we must continue to act pragmatically and rationally.” Engaging Europe without disturbing Eurasia’s complex geopolitics will require pragmatism and rational expectations when President Tokayev travels to Samarkand.
The upcoming EU-Central Asia summit will likely end with a generic diplomatic statement calling for more cooperation and integration. Turkmenistan will not want mentions of human rights in any final declaration. At the same time, Central Asia’s unavoidable close relations with Russia mean that Ukraine will not be mentioned either.
Hence, the areas where more development can occur revolve around commerce and investment, as well as other projects Europe is particularly interested in, such as green energy and environmental protection. There will likely be agreements, or the start of negotiations, on green projects at Samarkand. For example, Kazakhstan is seeking investments to construct small hydropower and nuclear plants, which match Europe’s green goals. On the other hand, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan want to diversify their economy and attract investors to other industries, like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, IT, and manufacturing.
EU-CA relations are robust nowadays. Brussels has signed enhanced partnership and cooperation agreements with Kazakhstan (2020) and Kyrgyzstan (2024), while negotiations are underway with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, not to mention memoranda of understanding for critical raw minerals with Kazakhstan (2022) and Uzbekistan (2024). The EU has also heavily invested in the Middle Corridor, including €30 million ($32 million) for connectivity and €28.4 million ($30.6 million) for economic development.
High-level bilateral engagement also occurs, like French President Emmanuel Macron’s 2023 tour of Central Asia or the Central Asia-Germany summit held in 2024 in Astana. In other words, diplomatic engagement between Central Asia and Europe (the Union and individual states) is constant and strong. The goal now is to continue moving engagement to the next level, from discussions and statements to more actions across a broader spectrum.
The upcoming European Union-Central Asia summit is a monumental event, as it demonstrates that Brussels and European governments regard Central Asia as a vital partner. Samarkand will soon see the arrival of senior policymakers from Central Asia and Europe: the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission are expected to attend, in addition to the five Central Asian leaders.
From a diplomatic perspective, the EU-CA summit occurs at a time of global tensions and the transformation of global geopolitics. Europe and Central Asia are geographically distant from each other, and the foreign policy priorities of some countries, not to mention the problematic internal situation of others, indicate obstacles for closer integration. However, if things go well, Samarkand will be the next stage of a win-win relationship, like between Kazakhstan and its European partners.
Wilder Alejandro Sánchez is President of Second Floor Strategies, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C. He covers geopolitical, defense, and trade issues in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Western Hemisphere. He recently co-authored a report on water security issues in Central Asia, published by the Atlantic Council.
Image: Nik Ryabukhin / Shutterstock.com.