How Turkey Could Destroy Israel’s Air Corridor Over Syria
The Turkish military is deploying anti-aircraft weapons to the former Syrian Army airbases at Palmyra and Menagh—seemingly in an attempt to disrupt future Israeli attempts to strike at Iran.
File this under “complicating factors” for the Israeli Air Force (IAF), as it prepares to launch what may be a major air war against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
At the end of last year, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, renowned for its stability and for surviving a brutal thirteen-year civil war with Russian and Iranian assistance, was abruptly wiped away by a Turkish-backed rebel offensive. It has been replaced by a weak Islamist regime under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of Al-Qaeda led by that organization’s former leader in Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa (alias Abu Mohammed al-Jolani).
Israel has understandably been alarmed by this development, and has moved in force to create a buffer zone to protect the Golan Heights. Taking control over territory in Syria has had a second benefit for Israel; it allows the Israeli Air Force to better enhance their otherwise limited ability to reach Iran with airstrikes.
That’s because the area that Israel has co-opted in Syria is now part of their air corridor linking Israeli territory with that of Iran, cutting across Syria and northern Iraq into neighboring Iran.
As a brutal demonstration to the mullahs of Iran, last October, the Israelis used this air corridor to launch airstrikes with their F-35I Adir fifth-generation warplanes against targets in Iran. According to Israeli sources, they destroyed a handful of powerful Russian-made S-300 air defense systems—leaving Iran “naked” to future Israeli attacks, thanks to that new air corridor.
Turkey Might Spoil Israel’s Iran Offensive
Now comes the complicating factor to Israel: Turkey, a major NATO member and a country that seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East in the vein of the Ottoman Empire centuries earlier, is moving powerful anti-aircraft systems into Syria. These systems are meant to replace the ones that Israel destroyed after Assad’s regime fell.
What’s more, since HTS is joined at the hip to Turkey’s MIT intelligence agency, Ankara’s movement of key military assets and personnel into Syria is indicative of increasingly hostile intent toward Israel—notably a desire on the part of Turkish leaders to deter Israel from striking at suspected Iranian nuclear weapons facilities.
The Turks are deploying anti-aircraft weapons to the former Syrian Arab Army airbases at Palmyra and Menagh. Among those systems deployed that will complicate Israel’s ability to reliably launch and recover airstrikes into Iran are the S-400 Triumf, the Hisar-A and Hisar-O+, and the Korkut air defense systems.
Ankara’s Air Defense Network Is Growing Stronger
The Obama administration in 2013 blocked the Turks from acquiring U.S.-made Patriot missile defenses, despite Turkey being eligible for these weapons due to their NATO membership. In response to that move—which many former Obama-era officials now admit was shortsighted—the Turks turned to the Russians to purchase the S-400.
This Russian-built system is one of the best air defense platforms in the world. It is capable of engaging aircraft, drones, and missiles at ranges of up to 248 miles.
Nor is Turkey content to purchase foreign systems. It has developed its own domestic anti-air defenses, including the Hisar-A and Hisar-O+. The Hisar-A is a short-range air defense system can engage aircraft, drones, helicopters, and cruise missiles of up to ten miles away. The Hisar-O+ is a medium-range system that can engage all manner of aircraft, drones, and cruise missiles up to 15 miles away.
Then there is the Korkut low-altitude defense system that is capable of firing 1,100 rounds per minute to neutralize threats, like rockets, within a three-mile range. Korkut has already been used in past operations in Idlib Province of Syria during years of conflict there (because Turkey has shamelessly supported a variety of Islamist terror groups over the years in Syria, such as HTS).
And Turkey is reportedly enhancing these deployments with advanced radar networks to monitor Syrian airspace extensively, potentially covering areas as far as Damascus. (For background, the Israelis hold territory just up to 16 miles southwest of Damascus).
Alongside air defenses, long-range strike drones like the domestically-made Akinci and Aksungur are mentioned as part of the deployment by Turkey.
Israel Strikes Back Against Turkish Forces in Syria
As if sensing the inherent threat posed to its war planning against Iran by Turkey’s move, the IAF conducted devastating airstrikes on April 2 targeting military sites in Syria, such as those near Palmyra, Hama, and Damascus, in a bid to degrade the capacity of these former army bases to host the Turks and their advanced air defense systems. Unconfirmed social media reports suggested that at least three Turkish military officers were killed in the Israeli bombings.
If that is the case, we are now witnessing a very dangerous scenario arising, in which a NATO country, Turkey, has just been attacked by America’s closest regional ally, Israel—all because Ankara was attempting to prevent Jerusalem from striking Tehran.
It is a sordid and confusing interplay. But it demonstrates how serious the prospects of a massive regional war in the Mideast are at the moment.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Yuri Tuchkov.