Trump’s Second Term: Even More Engagement With North Korea Than Before?
Two North Koreans who once operated in the heart of its regime, bring firsthand insight into the Kim family’s rule and the dynamics of U.S.-North Korea diplomacy.
In a recent Fox News interview, President Donald Trump revealed his intention to reach out to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un again as he did in his first term in office. Could this signal another Trump-Kim summit?
During his presidency, Trump often touted his “friendship” with Kim as a cornerstone of his diplomatic strategy. Now, back in the Oval Office, Trump appears confident that Kim would welcome renewed engagement.
If such a summit materializes, what tangible outcomes could Trump, known for his “America First” agenda, realistically secure from Kim? The success of any future summit will depend on Trump’s ability to extract meaningful concessions from North Korea. Despite skepticism surrounding past negotiations, there are three key areas where progress could be made:
I) The return of the USS Pueblo
II) The dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility
III) The economic cooperation at the Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone.
The USS Pueblo: A Symbolic Victory
One of the most symbolic opportunities for Trump would be reclaiming the USS Pueblo, a U.S. Navy ship seized by North Korea in international waters in 1968. The Pueblo has long been a point of contention, serving as a trophy of anti-American propaganda in Pyongyang. Its return would signify a major political and diplomatic victory. Trump, a president who thrives on grand gestures, could capitalize on such a move to solidify his image as a dealmaker.
The return of the Pueblo would also carry broader implications. For North Korea, surrendering such a high-profile asset would demonstrate a commitment to mending relations with the United States. While the gesture would be largely symbolic, its repatriation would resonate deeply with the American public and serve as a tangible marker of progress.
Yongbyon: The Linchpin of Denuclearization
Another potential achievement could be the irreversible dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. This site, central to North Korea’s nuclear program, was a key topic during the 2019 Hanoi Summit. While Yongbyon is an aging facility, its complete decommissioning would be the most significant denuclearization milestone since the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework. Such a step could set the stage for further inspections of additional nuclear sites.
For Trump, securing the dismantlement of Yongbyon would reinforce his narrative as a leader capable of achieving what his predecessors could not. While some critics might argue that Yongbyon’s closure is insufficient given North Korea’s broader nuclear capabilities, its dismantlement would still mark a meaningful step and provide momentum for future negotiations.
Economic Cooperation: The Wonsan-Kalma Proposal
One of the most ambitious opportunities lies in the realm of economic cooperation. Trump could propose that the U.S. corporations invest in North Korea’s Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone. As one of Kim Jong Un’s most precious initiatives, the Tourist Zone has been touted as a symbol of North Korea’s economic aspirations and a well-known vacation spot for North Koreans, and soon enough, Russians. Linking U.S. investment to the development of this site could encourage North Korea to embrace reforms.
Such a proposal would signal a willingness to pair denuclearization with tangible economic incentives. For Kim, this deal could represent an opportunity to showcase progress domestically while securing a lifeline for North Korea’s struggling economy. For Trump, it would underscore his unconventional approach to foreign policy.
Would Kim Jong Un Accept Trump’s Proposal?
Predicting Kim Jong Un’s response requires understanding his psychological makeup and the internal dynamics of the North Korean regime. While Kim is an isolated dictator, he is acutely aware of the importance of projecting strength and legitimacy. Trump’s direct offer to reach out likely appeals to Kim’s ego, as a summit with the leader of the world’s most powerful nation bolsters his image as a global statesman.
Kim has previously used summits with Trump to strengthen his authority and secure political concessions, such as the suspension of U.S.-South Korean military exercises. Additionally, Trump’s interest in the Wonsan-Kalma project suggests that informal signals may already be exchanged. By engaging with Trump, Kim can pursue economic relief, gain concessions, and further stabilize his regime.
What Would Kim Jong Un Seek?
For Kim, the primary objective of any summit would be ensuring the survival and stability of his regime. This goal drives North Korea’s diplomatic strategy and shapes its demands in negotiations. Kim would likely push for sanctions relief tied to denuclearization commitments, particularly on coal, minerals, textiles, and labor exports.
Kim may also seek recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state, using arms reduction talks to secure international legitimacy. He could demand guarantees against military threats, a reduction in U.S.-South Korean military cooperation, and even phased U.S. troop withdrawals. Additionally, establishing formal diplomatic relations with the United States, such as opening a liaison office in Pyongyang, could be a priority for Kim to mitigate international isolation.
A Calculated Gamble
The success of a Trump-Kim summit will hinge on whether Trump can translate his rapport with Kim into concrete results. Securing the USS Pueblo, dismantling Yongbyon, and fostering economic cooperation in Wonsan would mark significant wins and bolster Trump’s legacy as a bold dealmaker.
However, the true test of Trump’s “friendship” with Kim lies in balancing North Korea’s demands with maintaining U.S. leverage. The stakes are high, but a successful summit could redefine U.S.-North Korea relations and strengthen Trump’s reputation as a leader willing to take calculated risks for peace and progress.
Ri Jong Ho is a former senior North Korean economic official who served under all three leaders of the Kim family regime, holding positions such as Executive Director of the Daehung General Bureau of the Korean Workers’ Party and Chairman of the Korea Kumgang Economic Development Group under the Defense Committee. A recipient of the prestigious Hero of Labor Award, he defected to South Korea with his family in 2014 and now resides in the Washington, D.C., area.
Hyun Seung Lee is a North Korean escapee and lead strategist at the Global Peace Foundation, with prior experience in North Korea’s shipping and mining sectors and as a sergeant in the DPRK Army Special Force. He defected in 2014 due to severe governmental purges, and he holds a Bachelor’s in Economics from Dongbei University of Finance and Economics and a Master’s in Public Administration from Columbia University.
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