Together, The U.S. And Japan Can Preserve A Free And Open Indo-Pacific
It is time to bring together a redoubtable defensive alliance that can deter Chinese hegemonic designs across the region—an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO).
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s visit with President Trump this week sets the stage for constructing a bold deterrence architecture to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific for future generations and prevent a war in the region. The Indo-Pacific is the primary theatre of concern for the United States. Japan is the indispensable American partner in securing the wider region. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, during Trump’s first term, articulated a vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and served as its most effective proponent on the world stage. His untimely death in 2022 was an incalculable loss to the world. The United States and Japan’s shared national interests call for doubling down in advancing Abe’s dream by constructing the institutional arrangements necessary for credible deterrence that will secure the region’s future.
Securing a free and open Indo-Pacific calls for a two-pronged strategic effort. First, a self-reinforcing institutional architecture should be constructed that preserves the military and economic security interests of the United States and its allies in the region. Second, Washington must recruit the wider world’s interests and commitments to preserve regional security. This calls for clear-eyed American leadership, alliance-building, and burden-sharing.
The security of the region would be substantially enhanced by a collective security arrangement among regional nations rather than a solitary reliance on unilateral American security guarantees. American military effectiveness and resilience in the region are also substantially augmented by a collective security architecture and burden-sharing among allies. There is dissonance in the United States, which is censuring its European allies for greater contribution to collective North Atlantic security while offering a series of security guarantees in the Indo-Pacific—its professed primary theatre of interest. Prime Minister Ishiba has been an early and consistent advocate of a collective security framework. It is time to bring together a redoubtable defensive alliance that can deter Chinese hegemonic designs across the region—an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO).
An IPTO dedicated to the proposition of a free and open Indo-Pacific should be of the highest priority for the United States and Japan during Trump’s second term. IPTO constitutes a commensurate and timely response to the growing “no-limits” civil-military partnership between China and Russia, with Iran and North Korea included. IPTO’s main tenets may include an explicitly defensive (not offensive) posture buttressed with collective security obligations. It may also include a tiered deterrence approach to counter hybrid or cyber-attacks, including provisions for critical infrastructural security. The operation protocols of IPTO would dramatically enhance intelligence sharing, systems interoperability, and strategic planning, as well as complementary, coordinated, and integrated defense manufacturing.
IPTO represents a logical outcome of recent exponential growth in Chinese military capabilities and belligerence and the corresponding response from the United States and its allies. Trump’s first term reinvigorated and elevated the Quad—the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. President Biden reaffirmed and expanded U.S. defense agreements from South Korea to the Philippines, Vietnam to Papua New Guinea, and more. He also announced the Australian, UK, and U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral security partnership with a priority for increased nuclear submarine manufacturing and operations in the theatre. The United States also strengthened additional trilateral security arrangements, including JAROPUS (Japan-Philippines-US) and JAROKUS (Japan-South Korea-US). China, North Korea, and Russia decried these developments as the “Asian version of NATO.”
President Trump will find in Prime Minister Ishiba a committed champion for IPTO as he did in Abe for a free and open Indo-Pacific. The two should make history by establishing IPTO with additional founding nations, including Australia, the Philippines, the UK, Canada, France, and New Zealand. Willing and able NATO nations should be welcomed as members of IPTO. Special partner status may be accorded to regional actors with the ability to contribute, including India, South Korea, Vietnam, and other like-minded nations whose sovereign territories are claimed by China. The U.S. military capabilities, influence, and reach stand to be greatly enhanced by the presence of two robust collective security alliances—NATO and IPTO—on both ends of the China-Russia axis.
The leading priority of IPTO—after defending the sovereign territories of its members—would be affording a security umbrella (and associated economic development) to the Pacific islands—Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia archipelagos—stretching from Hawaii to the Philippines and Australia. These islands ensure uninterrupted American economic and military reach across the vast ocean. They are consequently integral to defending the island chain that extends from Japan to the Philippines, from Papua New Guinea to Australia, and offering any military assistance to Taiwan if needed.
IPTO addresses the military aspects of securing a free and open Indo-Pacific. Complementary efforts to shore up the energy and economic security of the region are equally important. Chinese economic coercion in the region is more pronounced and deeply rooted than its growing military belligerence. The United States and Japan should complement the establishment of IPTO with twin efforts to shoring up regional energy and economic security.
First is an Indo-Pacific Energy Security initiative to address pressing regional energy demands through the supply of American natural gas and civil nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors and related exports. The initiative will also work with regional partners to facilitate a credible energy transition that is diverse and resilient in the face of growing Chinese dominance in renewable energy. Energy security is critical for economic growth. Washington and its allies enjoy an extraordinary edge over China in energy exports and should optimize their collective advantage through this Initiative.
Second, an Indo-Pacific Economic Security initiative constituting sector-specific agreements in critical economic areas such as semiconductors, AI, fin-tech, cloud computing and communications, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, batteries, shipbuilding, and civil aviation. Sector-specific agreements fortify collective economy security from China shocks, coercion, and dominance. They offer diverse and rich opportunities to align industry standards and coordinate the application of investment screenings, tariffs, quotas, qualitative standards, and other economic security tools (export controls, research security, and secure supply chain rules). The Quad nations could form an initial core of such an Initiative with willing partners from ASEAN, Europe, and other regions able to join on a sector-specific basis.
Prime Minister Abe repeatedly asserted that a free and open Indo-Pacific was essential to ensure a rule-abiding international order. His assertion, after Russia’s repeated invasions of Ukraine and increased Chinese bellicosity towards Taiwan—holds even greater import today. Instability in the Indo-Pacific region would have severe direct impacts across the adjoining Indo-Mediterranean and Arctic regions and substantially impair the global economy.
Consequently, strategic prudence calls for the United States and Japan to work tirelessly to strengthen the economic and security linkages between the Indo-Pacific, the Indo-Mediterranean, and the Free North, which comprises the Arctic-Baltic regions. Strong linkages among these free and open spaces reinforce the resilience of all three theatres while restricting the malign maneuverability of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea nexus in the shared space. Therefore, strengthening linkages of adjoining free and open spaces with the Indo-Pacific must be the conscious strategy for securing a free and open Indo-Pacific.
President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba have a historic opportunity to enshrine a free and open Indo-Pacific in a collective military, energy, and economic architecture that transcends political cycles and preserves peace and prosperity in the most important corner of the world. Prime Minister Abe articulated the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. President Trump lent it the full force of American power and authority. President Biden sustained the Indo-Pacific primacy during his term. Now, it is for President Trump—with Prime Minister Ishiba—to clad with iron a free and open Indo-Pacific through a lasting institutional framework that will make America and the region great for years to come.
Kaush Arha is President of the Free & Open Indo-Pacific Forum and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University.