America’s Top NATO Commander Just Estimated Russian Losses In Ukraine—and They’re Lower Than Expected
Despite its heavy losses, the Russian military leadership persists in its attritional strategy, exchanging men for Ukrainian territory.
The war in Ukraine continues with no clear ending in sight. Although Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are engaged in ceasefire talks, the fighting on the ground goes on—albeit at a marginally slower pace in recent months.
Still, the pace of the conflict has translated into heavy casualties for both sides. As the aggressor and the force more often on the offensive, the Russian forces have taken more casualties than the Ukrainian military. But the number of casualties Russia has suffered in the conflict thus far is uncertain—and estimates vary wildly between Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources.
U.S. Estimate of Russian Casualties Lower than Kyiv’s
In recent statements to the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. European Command (EUCOM) and also the Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, provided some data on the losses of the Russian army in the war so far.
In terms of losses, Gen. Cavoli stated that the Russian military has suffered approximately 790,000 casualties. It is notable that this number diverges sharply from the data the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence regularly provides to the public. Interestingly, it also diverges from numbers the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence has been estimating in periodic intelligence assessments. The Ukrainian estimate, which is typically corroborated by British intelligence assessments, claims that the Russian forces have now suffered more than 925,000 total losses. That would mean a divergence of as many as 135,000 casualties between Ukrainian and U.S. reporting.
To offer a point of comparison, the initial Russian invasion force that entered Ukraine in February 2022 only numbered around 190,000 men.
“In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war—despite suffering an estimated 790,000 casualties,” Cavoli stated.
High Losses Outside the Formal “Russian Army”
However, Cavoli’s wording might offer an explanation. The top U.S. military officer on the Continent referred to “the Russian army” that “has borne the brunt of combat.” His particular words left open the possibility that the data he provided did not include losses suffered by the other services of the Russian armed forces—as well as by Russian paramilitary units like the infamous Wagner Group, which was not formally a part of the Russian armed services. At some point in the war, the mercenary group took the lead in the fighting, especially around the key town of Bakhmut in the Donbas. The Kremlin had given Yevgeny Prigozhin the green light to recruit fighters from Russia’s vast penal colony system. Tens of thousands of convicts signed up to fight in Ukraine for six months in exchange for their freedom. Most were killed in the fighting—among them Prigozhin himself, whose private plane was bombed after an abortive rebellion against the Russian army in June 2023.
The term “Russian army” also does not technically include the pro-Russian separatist forces that have fought in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts since 2014. And Cavoli did not mention casualties suffered by the North Korean contingent fighting alongside the Russian military in the Kursk Oblast.
The fact that senior NATO officials—whom Cavoli commands in his role as SACEUR—circulated the “900,000” casualties number last week also suggests that he was referring to just the losses suffered by the Russian army.
Total Russian casualties, therefore, could be closer to the numbers provided by the Ukrainians than the number the EUCOM commander provided in his statements to Congress.
Despite its heavy losses, the Russian military leadership persists in its attritional strategy, exchanging men for Ukrainian territory. “Russian commanders still emphasize quantity and mass over skill and operational acumen,” the EUCOM boss concluded.
One thing is certain: the conflict in Ukraine is costly for both sides.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / Stasia04.